Thanks to the work of epidemiologists the world over we know how not to spread this virus, or, better said, those who are paying attention know how not to spread this virus. This is a virus spread primarily by respiratory means, mostly respiration in relatively closed spaces. All the studied case clusters here and abroad have two ingredients: an enclosed space, a bus, a room, a restaurant, AND the addition of one individual who does not know (yet, at least) that they are infected and shedding virus with every breath, shout, song, cough, or sneeze. In those cases the spread is, well, viral, and each newly infected individual goes out and potentially spreads the disease in wavelets.
Six foot social distancing is only a useful for being easy to remember. There is no magical barrier at the six foot limit, especially indoors. I highly recommend the following two articles (the first of which I highlighted last week) to inform your understanding of what we know of the transmission of this disease:
From a Dr. Erin Bromage, professor of biology at UMass: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR0pFNF7i8Rf_LVRLSZhyFNfDe8KvjbO8zdhMxhq9mogDuHlyCzYiYFQeZo
Here’s Dr. Bromage in a 7 minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqqPY8N2d-8
From Dr. Atul Gawande, renowned physician and communicator, based in the hospital system in which I trained: https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/amid-the-coronavirus-crisis-a-regimen-for-reentry
For my part, sadly, it is going to be a long time before I am comfortable sitting in an indoor restaurant or, even more sadly, attending any sort of energetic dance venue (indoor or out), or exercising with others in a gym, or traveling in a commercial airplane. Masks in those situations would help but they’re problematic, either practically (eating) or aesthetically (dancing). Obviously, all this gets more risky next fall when we try to come back indoors.
The culture factor is paramount. Our abysmal, science-and-reality-denying national leadership, with its encouragement of protests against Democratic governors in swing states, is making mask-wearing yet another badge of partisan division, when that leadership should be touting mask-wearing as a patriotic duty, a public health courtesy, and a nod to the reality that we’re all in this together. National guidance is blocked (from the CDC) or misused for partisan advantage. That leadership failure is already killing us on a per capita basis [the bold is mine]:
Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan, among others, all have kept deaths below 10 per million population, compared with 271 per million in the United States.
The contrast of the culture fostered by the man in the White House compared that of more successful countries is pointedly detailed in this three and a half minute video [worth your time to watch and share]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYQvWuiXC8c
Instead of uniting us against the risks, uniting us in our universal desire to get back to some semblance of normal life with honest, scientifically based guidance and preparation we find ourselves in a culture with people who flaunt their “liberty” to put us all at risk.
Ironically, as long as enough of us are careful enough, the odds of an asymptomatic virus-spreader appearing at and infecting a church full of people in, say, Stevens County, will be small, and the attendees will increasingly be convinced of the rectitude of their resistance to any call for unity. It is a paradox that will only resolve as travel restrictions ease and people become more lax. The culture that flaunts bare faces and heedless attendance at large indoor social gatherings will eventually spread the virus. The only question is when. If it is going to happen we can hope it does so before the late fall.
Keep to the high ground,
Jerry