COVID-19 Thoughts

With quarantines, case changing and pre-emptive closing down of large gatherings we are trying to avoid what happened in China and what is now happening in Italy:

By the time this is over most of us will have been infected by COVID-19. Some of us will become very ill–and some of us will die (people from almost age groups, but more so among the elderly and among those with pre-existing medical problems). For those who experience severe pneumonia medical help for our breathing will be life-saving. The idea of all this pre-emptive closing of events is to “flatten the curve.” Here that is in graphic form:

If you want to delve more deeply into the epidemiology and mathematics of this here’s the best I’ve seen:

Keep to the high ground–and I’ll be back Monday week, i.e. March 23,